The Impact of the Next Economic Slowdown on Housing

Dated: 08/02/2019

Views: 347

How to Judge the Impact of the Next Economic Slowdown on Housing

How to Judge the Impact of the Next Economic Slowdown on Housing | MyKCM

We’ve experienced economic growth for almost a decade, which is the longest recovery in the nation’s history. Experts know a recession can’t be too far off, but when will this economic slowdown actually occur?

Pulsenomics just released a special report revealing that nearly 6 out of 10 of the 90 economists, investment strategists, and market analysts surveyed believe the next recession will occur by the end of next year. Here’s the breakdown:

  • 9% believe a recession will occur this year
  • 50% believe it will occur in 2020
  • 35% believe it will occur in 2021
  • 6% believe it will occur after 2021

When asked what would trigger the next recession, the three most common responses by those surveyed were:

  1. Trade Policy
  2. Stock Market Correction
  3. Geopolitical Crisis

How might the recession impact real estate?

Challenges in the housing and mortgage markets were major triggers of the last recession. However, a housing slowdown ranked #9 on the list of potential triggers for the next recession, behind such possibilities as fiscal policy and political gridlock.

As far as the impact the recession may have on home values, the experts surveyed indicated home prices would continue to appreciate over the next few years. They called for a 4.1% appreciation rate this year, 2.8% in 2020, and 2.5% in 2021.

Bottom Line

On the same day, in the same survey, the same experts who forecasted a recession happening within the next 18 months also claimed housing will not be the trigger, and home values will still continue to appreciate.

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Carletha Frazier Singleton

Carletha Frazier Singleton began in the Real estate industry in 2004, she is a licensed real estate broker in 2 states and holds a vast amount of knowledge and experience. She has managed apartment co....

1 comments in this topic

  • Posted by suckers7767
    01/24/2020
    experts are never right. a crash is coming. Believe it .We are working to live and living to work. Look at the staggering debt. Maximizing profits. Cheap homes 300gs or more cars and suvs 35000 70000 idiots buying cars and financing for 84 months. Debt Debt Debt. Value for dollars spent not there. We have raised two generations of mathematical idiots. They have no clue .2+2 is not 22 its FOUR. PS reparations is coming where is the money going to come from when the middle class is not working anymore.

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